Climate Change – Expect a Dirty Fight in 2015

It's Our Future

In this blog, we review the main achievements in the fight against climate change during 2014 and highlight the prospects for further progress in 2015?

The biggest news of 2014 was the bilateral agreement between China and the USA, in which the US committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below its 2005 levels by 2025, and in return China agreed to peak its own CO2 emissions by 2030 and increase the proportion of its non-fossil energy to 20%. However, the details merit a lot of careful consideration.  Has the US really made a significant new offer, or just recycled their existing direction of travel into a vague commitment? Should we praise China for committing to build more clean energy than any other nation, or condemn it for allowing emissions to keep rising for another decade?

The week after that agreement was announced, there was a theatrical display of political symbolism at the G20 summit in Australia as world leaders lined up to give Australian prime minister Tony Abbott’s government a slap on the wrist for its anti-science obstructionism.  Meanwhile Europe, despite its own troubles, has managed to maintain a climate leadership role with new 2030 targets which, though flawed, keep the continent just ahead of the game on cutting carbon.

As we head into 2015 things are finally starting to move forward.  The contribution made by on-going advances in solar photovoltaics and other clean technologies, heavily backed by China and Germany, should be applauded.

Aligned with this are progressive moves from some major figures in the worlds of business and local and regional government, who are making commitments to 100% renewable energy.  They are making the slow pace of international political negotiations look more and more out of step with what’s happening on the ground.

The main reason for all this climate change related activity is, of course, Paris 2015.  Is it possible that by this time next year climate change will finally have been addressed with the sort of urgency and seriousness it deserves?

The climate denial lobby and its fossil fuel funders will be even more focused in the coming months.  However, once the world starts setting hard limits on emissions, all the business plans of all the oil majors in the world become obsolete, wishful thinking and the global economy starts adjusting to a low-carbon future in earnest.  From that day forward fossil fuels go into permanent retreat.  So expect to see a last-ditch defence of the fossil fuel economy, with climate science under greater attack than ever before.  With trillions of dollars at stake, we can expect a dirty fight.

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